User:Kalki/improving-mixup-success

Scouting Opponent Tendencies

Mixups generally are unfavorable to the initiator against proper defense. In practice, no one can implement the Nash game-theoretic optimal defensive strategy. Moreover, there are not going to be enough interactions of that mixup in a game (even a longer set) for the distribution to really settle. Therefore, it is important to make quick, confident reads on your opponent's defensive strategy in order to improve success on your mixups.

The first "layer" is to scout your opponent's tendencies with the "pokes" of your mixup - low risk options that have limited low-risk counterplay, while likely being low reward and giving up your turn on block. It is important to find safe options that have limited counterplay first, since it allows you to safely use those options without worrying about getting blown-up, and to focus on the opponent and the defensive options they're trying to use. To further reduce risk, you can even feint a mixup (e.g., crouching without doing anything to feint a FC mixup, entering stance without doing anything to feint a stance mixup) to bait out a defensive reaction. Make sure your feint itself doesn't get punished.

The second layer is based upon your observations from the first layer. After observing your opponent's defensive strategy to the mixup (and incorporating other data from the rest of their game) in various situations, you should alter your offensive strategy accordingly, increasing the rate of options which they tend to underrepresent (e.g. doing more mids if they duck too much), and reducing the rate of options they overrepresent (avoiding linear moves if they step a lot). You can also move on to mixup options that give higher reward if you notice openings to do so (e.g., using slower, linear moves if your opponent prefers to remain blocking).

Usually, the opponent's counter to the second layer is countered by the options in your first layer, in most mixups. In any case, the idea still remains the same, use the information gathered from your second and first layer to adapt your strategy. Over a longer set, this will tend to resemble the optimal game-theoretic strategy.

Improving Mixup Success Rate

In theory, mixups are pure guesses. In practice, a player can improve the success rate of their mixups by influencing the defender's ability to guess correctly.

• Disguising the initiation of the mixup - take away the defender's ability to know that they have to make a decision - feints, cancels. Also tied to this is not initiating mixups at predictable situations - mixup your spacing and timing when initiating the actual mixup too
• High speed of mixups - increase the decision making rate to fatigue the defender and lead to suboptimal defensive choices - poke into mixup
• Increase number of option presented - fatigue/load the defender's mental stack and lead to suboptimal defensive choices, counter reaction/timing based defense - more mixup options, rotating mixups